Thursday, July 15, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: Kazakhstan 1996 Butterflies (Scott #161-64)


Many of the new and newly resurrected nations of Central Asia and Europe have issued quite a few stamps and souvenir sheets in very modest quantities, and some of these represent interesting opportunities for speculation for those who wish to "get in on the ground floor." As these countries have only recently begun issuing stamps, their collector populations are minimal, although they are unlikely to remain so, especially if the countries prosper. The best way to play them is to target popular topicals with low issuance quantities, as these will have worldwide appeal, whether interest in these countries' stamps grows significantly or not.

In 1996, Kazakhstan issued a set of stamps picturing butterflies (Scott #161-64). Only 25,000 sets were issued, and Scott '10 values the unused set at $ 3.30. Butterflies are among the most popular sub-categories of Animal Topicals, and that, combined with the inexpensiveness of the set, makes it a very low-risk speculation.


A nation of 16 million, Kazakhstan is known to many outsiders from the somewhat demeaning film comedy "Borat." It is the 9th largest country in the world, with a territory greater than that of Western Europe, although its population density is less than 15 per square mile. Kazakhstan has plentiful reserves of oil, natural gas, uranium, chromium, lead, zinc, manganese, coal, iron, and gold. It also has a major agricultural sector, and is the seventh largest producer of grain. Annual GDP growth has averaged 6% over the last 5 years.

Those interested in becoming part of an international community of stamp collectors, dealers, and investors are welcome to join the "Stampselectors" group at Facebook. The group hosts lively discussions concerning stamp investment and practical aspects of collecting, as is also an excellent venue for those who wish to buy, sell, or trade stamps.


Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: Madagascar 1884-86 British Consular Mail Stamps (Scott #1-58)


Between 1884 and 1886, the British Consulate in Madagascar, then a French protectorate, produced stamps for use by British citizens residing there (Scott #1-58). At the time, the island was rife with disputes between the two colonial powers and also with the native population which, oddly enough, wished to govern itself.

The Consular Mail stamps were gummed in one corner shortly before they were used, and often torn off of envelopes by postal clerks, as they were not accepted as legitimate postage by the Universal Postal Union. Most of the remaining unused examples do not have gum, and most of the used are faulty to some degree. Estimates of quantities produced range from under 100 for the rarest of these stamps to about 4,000 for the most common, and Scott values range from $ 90.00 to
$ 12,000.-. Covers are extremely rare.

These stamps are highly prized by British Commonwealth collectors, and should be considered a conservative investment. There is the possibility that there might eventually be a demand for them in Madagascar, but probably not for a long while. Were a stamp market to develop there, however, the values for these stamps would soar.

A nation of 20.6 million people, the Republic of Madagascar remains a poor, though rapidly developing, nation with considerable growth potential. It is still heavily reliant on agriculture, although potential sources of growth include mining, petroleum, light manufacturing, and tourism. The government has embarked on a course of financial reform, including aggressively seeking foreign investment. Annual GDP growth has average 4.5% over the last 5 years.


Sunday, July 11, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: 1922 Malaya-Borneo Exhibition Issue


In 1922, an exhibition showcasing the economic potential of British Malaya and North Borneo was held in conjunction with the Prince of Wales' visit to Malaya. Three Malayan States, North Borneo. and the Straits Settlements issued sets commemorating the exhibition by overprinting regular issues. All are scarce and undervalued, and have dual market appeal to collectors of British Commonwealth and Malaya/Malaysia. I've listed them, along with quantities issued and their Scott '10 Catalogue Values for unused, below:


- Malaya-Kedah- Sc.#3a-33a (8) - 7,358; Scott '10 CV= $ 131.25
- Malaya-Kelantan- Sc. #3a-23a (9) - 1,159; Scott '10 CV = $ 393.00
- Malaya-Trengganu- Sc.#8a-24a (11)- 776; Scott '10 CV = $ 567.00
- North Borneo - Sc.#136a-53c (14)- Est. under 20,000; Scott '10 CV = $ 94.40
- Straits Settlements - Sc.#151d-99d (19)- 3,825; Scott '10 CV = 624.75

A rare error variety exists of one of the stamps of the Kedah set: the 25c Red Violet and Blue with inverted overprint (Scott #13b, with a Scott '10 Value of $ 1,200.- as unused). Purchase it conditional on obtaining expertization.

Also, the Straits Settlements set is of interest to collectors of Singapore.

With a population of over 28 million, Malaysia is an emerging market nation and the 29th largest economy in the world. It has abundant minerals and petroleum, vast forests, as well as a thriving agricultural sector. Nevertheless, over the last four decades, the Malaysian government has committed the nation to a transition from reliance on mining and agriculture to manufacturing, and is moving to conserve its remaining forests and reforest the overcut areas. The government has recently taken steps to make Malaysia more business-friendly, and the number of Malaysians living in poverty has also decreased. As of 2007, average wages were around $34 per day, up from about $9 per day in 1999. Annual GDP growth has averaged almost 6% over the last five years, although the country is taking a hit in 2010 as a result of the global financial crisis.




Thursday, July 8, 2010

Practical Advice: The Importance of Condition



Condition-grading is perhaps the most important skill that anyone who wishes to engage in the business of buying and selling stamps must learn. Beginners and those outside of the hobby are often surprised to learn that depending upon its condition, a stamp may sell for as little as 2% to as much as 100% of its catalogue value, or more. This is particularly true of U.S. stamps. Due to the current grading fetish (described in an earlier article), some U.S. stamps graded XF or higher have sold for multiples of their catalog values. So-called "condition-rarities," graded Superb or "Gem," have even sold for hundreds of times their Scott values.

Many beginning collectors make the costly mistake of purchasing overgraded stamps - stamps which have been described as being in better condition than they really are. While most stamp dealers and auctioneers are honest, there are some who intentionally overgrade stamps, and some who even alter stamps so that they appear to be in better condition than they are. Most dealers are not blatantly dishonest, but there are many who accidentally overlook defects, or are somewhat "liberal" when grading stamps which they are trying to sell. Also, some issues are notoriously poorly centered, and are graded on a "for issue" basis- for instance, "Very Fine for issue. " To an extent, condition-grading is more of an art than a science.

Average...... Fine....... F-VF........ Very Fine

When examining a stamp, the obvious first step is to look at its front. Centering is the first consideration. Pictured above are four 2c Washington stamps which grade from Average to Very Fine. Note how the perforations cut into the design at bottom of the first (Average) stamp. The perforations clear the design of the second (Fine) stamp, but are still close to the design at left and on the bottom. The third (Fine to Very Fine) stamp is better centered than the second, and the fourth (Very Fine) is the best centered of the four. Two higher grades also exist - Extremely Fine (almost perfectly centered), and Superb (perfectly centered). Unfortunately, the author did not possess XF or Superb examples of this stamp to scan.


Other criteria also apply when examining a stamp, such as whether the stamp has a defect or fault. Defective stamps are known as seconds, because they are the "second choice" of most collectors, who generally would prefer to own a sound, fault-free stamp. Nevertheless, the frontal appearance of a stamp is important in determining its value, even if it is faulty. A second which appears to be Very Fine is worth more than a second which appears worse.

Among the defects which are obvious from the front are faded or oxidized colors. Fading is usually caused by excessive exposure to light over a long period of time. Oxidation is a chemical process which effects certain types of inks, and causes them to rust. Reds and oranges often take on a brownish color when they oxidize. Other considerations include whether the stamp (if used) has a killer cancel which obstructs much of the design, abrasions, pin-holes, short perfs, tears or pieces missing, creases, stains, or inclusions. Inclusions are contaminant particles inadvertently mixed into the paper when it is being produced, and if such particles are large enough to be obvious, they can detract from the stamp's value. When examining old stamps, especially those without gum and for which the catalog value is much greater for unused than used, it is always prudent to look for indications of chemically-removed cancels. These may be difficult to detect, but a UV light will sometimes reveal traces of them.

The next step in the process is to turn over the stamp and examine its back. If the stamp is unused and was issued with gum, then gum condition will be an important consideration. The highest grade for gum is OG NH (original gum, never hinged), followed by LH (lightly hinged), OG (more heavily hinged), HR (hinge remnant) and No Gum. A stamp which is NH, but with disturbed gum, will be worth less than a NH stamp with pristine gum. Sometimes gum will appear brown or toned. Often, stamps which were stored under conditions of high humidity have toned, or tropicalized, gum, and toning can detract from the value of a stamp, especially if it is heavy (dark) or affects the paper as well as the gum.

Another type of defect of which to be aware when examining the back of a stamp is known as a thin. A thin is actually an abrasion of the back of a stamp, usually caused by careless removal of a hinge, or by heedlessly pulling the stamp off of something to which it was partially stuck. In effect, a part of the stamp's paper has been torn off its back and rendered "thinner" than the rest of the stamp. Larger, deep thins detract more from a stamp's value than smaller, shallower ones. The best way to detect a thin is to place a stamp in a black watermark basin (front side down), pour in some watermark fluid, and then observe whether a portion of the stamp appears darker than the rest of it. Of course, if the stamp is watermarked, one must take into account that the watermarked area will also appear darker, even if there is no thin. Occasionally one may also find a stamp for which the seller has attempted to conceal a thin, either by attaching a heavy hinge remnant to it, or by writing over it in pencil.

When purchasing an expensive stamp, the buyer should require expertization as a condition for purchase if he has any doubts whatsoever about either a stamp's authenticity or its actual condition. Most issuers of certificates will comment on a stamp's condition as well as its authenticity, and a few actually grade stamps. While there is nothing wrong with selling a repaired or altered stamp as long as it is described as such, there are dishonest individuals who profit from misrepresenting such stamps as being in their original condition. Repairing stamps is a lucrative business in Europe, especially in Germany, and there are practitioners of the trade who do a pretty convincing job of repairing tears, ironing out creases, filling thins, removing cancels, and regumming stamps. To an extent, developing an instinct or "gut-feeling" about when a stamp's authenticity or apparent condition seems questionable requires time and experience, but hopefully this article will serve as a start for those who are new to the game, and will make the learning experience less of a "school of hard knocks."

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: Mexico 1940 Stamp Centenary (Scott #754-58, C103-07)

In 1940, Mexico issued a compound set celebrating the Centenary of the Postage Stamp (Scott #754-58, C103-07). Only 5,000 sets were issued, and Scott '10 values the unused set at $ 141.00 ($ 340.00 for NH). Aside from the fact that this is a scarce set from a rapidly developing country, demand for it is augmented by its appeal as a "Stamps-on-Stamps" topical.


I've never seen a first day cover for this issue, but I'd guess that there are probably a few hundred of them around. If you happen to find one in decent shape, with a nice cachet, and selling for a slight premium over the cost of a used set (or less), then jump on it.


With a population of about 109 million, Mexico has experienced consistent annual GDP growth of between 3 and 5%. It has a diverse and developing economy, but modernization remains a slow and uneven process, and current challenges include addressing income inequality, crime, and corruption, upgrading the infrastructure, and reforming tax and labor laws. Stamps of Mexico are popular among collectors in the U.S. as well as in Mexico, and those who wish to learn more about Mexican stamps should consider joining the Mexico Elmhurst Philatelic Society International (M.E.P.S.I.). MEPSI provides many useful services for collectors of Mexico, including expertizing Mexican stamps.

I have begun a new blog, "The Stamp Specialist", which will feature wholesale buy prices for stamps which I am interested in purchasing. The first such buy list is for Mexico, and includes the set recommended in this article. Viewing dealers' buy lists every now and then is an excellent way to keep current on the vagaries of the stamp market.


Sunday, July 4, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: Russia 1934 Zeppelin Issue (Scott #C53-57)


In 1934, the Soviet Union issued a strikingly modern set of five Zeppelin stamps (Scott #C53-57), which were intended for use on one of the South America flights of that year. 40,000 sets were issued, and Scott '10 values the unused set at $ 505.00.


The set strongly appeals to both collectors of Russia and of Zeppelin stamps. Zeppelin stamps and covers are extremely popular among "Zepp" collectors and Aviation topicalists, especially in Europe. Those issued by destination-countries which are likely prospects for rapid economic development are compelling investments, in my opinion.


The market for better Russian stamps from the Czarist through the Stalin periods is very hot right now. With 142 million people, Russia is the 8th or 9th largest economy in the world, with vast reserves of natural resources and a highly educated population. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has experienced several major economic crises in its transition to capitalism, although annual GDP growth has been strong over the last 5 years, at around 7%. The country is still plagued by corruption and organized crime, making it somewhat reminiscent of America during its "Wild West" and Robber-Baron periods. Nevertheless, the middle class has grown from just 8 million people in 2000 to 55 million in 2006.

I favor all better items of Russia, as I believe it likely that both its economy and stamp collecting population will grow substantially over the next decades.


Thursday, July 1, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: Hong Kong 1862 Victoria (Scott #1-7)

In 1862, Hong Kong issued its first postage stamps (Scott #1-7). The two high values are particularly scarce, but also pricey. The 48c Rose (Scott #6) had a printing of 31,260 and the 96c Gray (Scott #7) - only 21,600, and Scott '10 prices them unused at $ 3,000.- and $ 4,000.-, and used at $ 400.- and $ 525.- , respectively.


I favor all of the better stamps of Hong Kong, as they appeal to collectors of China, Hong Kong, and British Commonwealth - three growing markets. While these two stamps may seem expensive, it is likely that only a few thousand remain in any condition. If buying them used, ascertain that they have postal, and not revenue, cancels, and obtain a certificate if necessary.


Centering of this issue tends to be poor, so expect to pay a premium for examples with four margins.


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Alex
I create paintings as documentations of context, based on systems of rules.
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