Stamp Investment Tip: Netherlands/Netherlands Indies 1921 Marine Insurance Stamps (Scott #GY1-7)

In 1921, the Netherlands, and its main colony, the Netherlands Indies, both issued Marine Insurance Stamps (Scott #GY1-7, in both cases). These stamps were used to pay for a very unusual type of insured mail. Letters bearing the stamps were placed in safes mounted on the decks of ships en route between Netherlands and Netherlands East Indies. The safes were buoyant and were equipped with flares and bells. In the event that the ship sank, the safe would float off and the flares and bells would activate, hopefully leading to the recovery of the safe and its contents. Only 5,216 of the Netherlands set were issued, and 4,127 of the Netherlands Indies set, and Scott '10 prices them unused at $ 605.- ($1,500.- for NH) and $ 186.90, respectively.

Both sets should do well, although the Netherlands Indies set is "sexier," as it may potentially appeal to a dual market in both the Netherlands and Indonesia. With about 16.6 million people, the Netherlands is the 16th largest economy in the world, and its annual GDP growth has averaged about 2.5% over the last 5 years. Indonesia is a developing, though still poor, country of 230 million people, with an annual GDP growth rate hovering around 5%-6%. Like most emerging market nations, it faces challenges which will have to be addressed, including corruption and major inequities in the distribution of income.

Furthermore, global aging trends in both countries should bolster the population of serious stamp collectors in both countries in the coming decades. The Netherlands' population of citizens age 60+ is projected to rise from 18.3% in 2000 to 32.8% in 2050, while Indonesia's 60+ age group is expected to almost triple, from 7.6% to 22.3%.

General Commentary: The Aging Population and the Coming Stamp Market Boom

A 2007 UN Report describes global trends in aging, showing an "unprecedented, pervasive, and enduring" aging of the world population which will have "profound implications on many facets of human life." According to the report, those aged 60 and over comprised 8% of the world population in 1950, and this number increased to 11% in 2007. It is expected to double, to 22%, by 2050.

One of the "profound implications" of global senescence which has not been explored is its probable effect on philately. While no surveys or empirical studies have been done to determine the break-down of the "serious" stamp collecting population by age, it is commonly accepted that people start collecting stamps when they are young, set them aside for several decades, and then return to stamp collecting later in life, when they have the money and time to devote themselves to the hobby as serious collectors.

Consequently, we may expect a doubling of the "serious" stamp collector proportion of the general population in countries which have a substantial middle class. The effect will be less pronounced in less-developed countries. Overall, however, we may expect the global population of serious stamp collectors to swell by tens of millions over the next forty years, and continue to grow as the population continues to age. This will result in a stamp market boom, as a vastly expanded pool of serious stamp collectors competes for a static or diminishing supply of better stamps.

While a "rising tide may lift all boats," in this case, some boats will be lifted higher than others. Clearly, the aging trend should be factored into the equation when analyzing the growth potential of a particular country's better stamps. The UN Report cited above profiles the aging trend with a section that examines how it affects specific countries and areas (at the end of the report). A prudent stampselector might consider targeting issues from countries which have both growing middle classes and rapidly aging populations.