General Commentary: The Bull in the China Shop

Recently, a prominent Chinese dealer published an extensive buy list for stamps of the P.R.C., with buy prices which significantly increased the wholesale values of key P.R.C. stamps. The most dramatic increases seem to be for many of the better souvenir sheets and for issues of the Cultural Revolution. The question is: does this represent a pivotal event for the P.R.C. market, and perhaps for the global stamp market as a whole, comparable in its implications for the stamp market to the effect of the failure of Lehman Brothers on the stock market (except, of course, that the new buy prices represent a positive development rather than a negative one)?

It's quite possible that the buy list was simply an attempt to manipulate prices upward, so as to increase the value of a dealer's inventory. But does this even matter? The Chinese stamp market has been hot for a while now, and it would be surprising if price manipulation was not utilized as a catalyst every now and then.

It's also possible that the new buy list is evidence of a bubble.

"The Entire Nation is Red" Design Error (Scott #999A)

To attempt to get a better idea of what is going on in the market for better P.R.C., I've done a little research, comparing buy prices of a few key items over the last 6 years. These quotations are approximate representations of wholesale value, and not by any means comprehensive, in that they do not take into account all P.R.C. buy lists for any given period.

(Prices are for VF NH)


1958 Kuan Han-ching s/s (Scott #357a):


2004: $ 65.00
2006: $ 75.00
2007: $ 85.00
2008: $ 130.00
March, 2010: $ 215.00 ; April, 2010: $ 340.00


1961 Table Tennis s/s (Scott #566a):

2004: $ 180.00
2206: $ 225.00
2007: $ 225.00
2008: $ 275.00
March, 2010: $ 800.00; April,2010: $ 1,180.00


1962 Mei Lan-fang s/s (Scott #628):

2004: $ 1,800.00
2006: $ 2,500.00
2007: $ 3,000.00
March, 2010: $ 10,000.00; April, 2010: $ 11,000.00

1964 Peonies s/s (Scott #782):

2004: $ 400.00
2006: $ 500.00
2007: $ 500.00
March, 2010: $ 2,000.00; April, 2010: $ 3,650.00

1967 Thoughts of Chairman Mao- unfolded strip of 5 (Scott #948a):

2004: $ 325.00
2006: $ 750.00
2007: $ 750.00
March, 2010: $ 2,500.00; April, 2010: $ 3,300.00


1967-68 Poems by Chairman Mao (Scott #967-80):

2004: $ 475.00
2006: $ 800.00
2007: $ 800.00
2008: $ 1,300.00
March, 2010: $ 2,200.00; April, 2010: $ 3,000.00


1968: "The Entire Nation is Red" (Scott #999A):

2004: $ 8,000.00
2006: $ 10,000.00
2007: $ 10,000.00
March, 2010: $ $ 60,000.00; April, 2010: $ 75,000.00


1978 Science Conference s/s (Scott #1383a):

2004: $ 140.00
2006: $ 150.00
2007: $ 160.00
March, 2010: $ 400.00; April, 2010: $ 490.00

1979 Study Science s/s (Scott #1518):

2004: $ 300.00
2006: $ 510.00
March, 2010: $ 1,600.00; April, 2010: $ 1,950.00

1980 Year of the Monkey (Scott #1586):

2004: $ 100.00
2006: $ 215.00
2007: $ 200.00
March, 2010: $ 800.00; April, 2010: $ 975.00

The gains are astounding, to the extent that they defy analysis. In certain respects, the situation certainly looks like a bubble. As the expression goes: "If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck." The only problem is that in this case, we're dealing with Peking Duck, a bionic "superduck" powered by tens of millions of Chinese collectors.

On the one hand, I can not advise buying many of the dramatically revalued items at their new stratospheric levels. On the other, I've been bullish about the Chinese stamp market for decades, and will not bet against it. In the long run, even the items which are currently being hysterically bid upward may turn out to be good investments. My recommendation is to wait until at least some of the dust has cleared, and the shock has at least partly worn off, and then target better items which have not been as hyped, and which haven't experienced such rapid increases in value. They represent safer bets, and their day will come.

Stamp Investment Tip: Albania 1964 P.R.C. 15th Anniversary (Scott #765-66)

In 1964, Albania issued a set of stamps commemorating the 15th Anniversary of the establishment of the People's Republic of China (Scott #765-66). Only 12,000 sets were issued, and Scott '10 prices the unused set at $ 22.00.


Better stamps of the P.R.C. have dramatically risen over the last decade, and will continue to do so as China progresses economically. It is inevitable that other countries' scarce issues with topics related to the People's Republic, especially those honoring Chairman Mao, will zoom upward when they attract the attention of China's tens of millions of collectors.

The market for Albanian stamps per se is a minor factor in this case, but worthy of consideration, nevertheless. A nation of 3.2 million people, Albania is poor by Western European standards, but has experienced healthy GDP growth, averaging 6% over the last 5 years. Foreign investment has increased but has been dampened somewhat by the country's inadequate infrastructure. Modernization will be Albania's main challenge over the next decade.

Stamp Investment Tip: People's Republic of China 1961 Ping Pong Souvenir Sheet (Scott #566a)

The Chinese stamp market is white hot right now, and will continue to be so as long as the People's Republic maintains its rapid economic growth and does not experience a major political disruption. There may be over 15 million stamp collectors in China, and in the year 2000, the Chinese government made it an official policy to foster stamp collecting among its youth, by encouraging elementary and high school teachers to form stamp clubs, as a means of increasing interest in China's history. The country currently has almost 50,000 stamp clubs and philatelic organizations, and universities in Fujian and Jiangxi offer elective courses in Philately. All of this represents a complete reversal of Chairman Mao's prohibition against stamp collecting, which he viewed as a form of "reactionary cosmopolitanism." While he was alive, most stamps of the P.R.C. which were not used for postage were bought by European and American collectors. Now, the Chinese are buying them back.


Among the hottest of issues from P.R. China are many of the early souvenir sheets, produced in absurdly low quantities, and stamps of the Cultural Revolution period. The 1961 26th World Table Tennis Championship Souvenir Sheet (Scott #566a) had a printing of only 30,000. It's a great Sports topical, and as with many similarly scarce Chinese souvenir sheets, should continue to skyrocket in value as long as the P.R.C. continues to prosper and doesn't implode. Scott '10 values the unused souvenir sheet at $ 700.-, and the avid competition to acquire this and other better P.R.C. items is reflected in current buy lists.