Showing posts with label China. Show all posts
Showing posts with label China. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: Republic of China 1952 Chiang Kai-shek Return to Presidency, imperforate (Scott #1052-56 Note)

In 1952, the Republic of China (also known as "Taiwan") issued a set of stamps commemorating the second anniversary Chiang Kai-shek's return to the presidency (Scott #1052-56), and also released an imperforate version of the set (Scott #1052-56 Note) for the collector market. 180,000 of the normal sets were issued, along with 20,000 imperforate sets, and Scott '11 prices the unused sets at $180.50 and $ 460.- respectively.


Both versions of the set are worthy of consideration. Although the imperforate set had a much lower quantity issued, none were used as postage and discarded, while I'd estimate that at least 80-90% of the regular set were. I also recommend te 1953 4th Anniversary of Chiang Kai-shek's Return to the Presidency set and its imperforate baby brother (Scott #1064-69 and 1064-69 Note), of which 290,000 were issued, along with 10,000 imperforate sets (Scott Values for unused are $ 289.50 and $ 460.- , respectively). It's interesting to note that the crusty but not always benevolent dictator was considerate enough to repeatedly remind his people to celebrate his glorious return.

Better stamps and souvenir sheets of the R.O.C. have done well over the last few decades, but the market has been cooler than that for stamps of the People's Republic. I believe that as capitalism and incremental democratization take hold in the P.R.C., relations between the "two Chinas" will gradually improve, as will demand for stamps of the R.O.C.. The process of thawing may have already begun: as of 2008, more than $ 150 billion have been invested in the P.R.C. by Taiwanese companies, and about 10% of the Taiwanese labor force works in the P.R.C., often to run their own businesses.

In the meantime, most of the demand for stamps of Taiwan will originate from collectors in Taiwan itself and among overseas Chinese (of which there are approximately 35 million). Taiwan, a nation of 23 million people, is one of the four "Asian Tigers," and has experienced explosive economic growth and industrialization over the last 5 decades. Annual GDP growth has averaged about 4% over the last 5 years, but this reflects the zero growth of 2009, a result of the global financial mess.


Friday, March 5, 2010

General Commentary: The Bull in the China Shop


Recently, a prominent Chinese dealer published an extensive buy list for stamps of the P.R.C., with buy prices which significantly increased the wholesale values of key P.R.C. stamps. The most dramatic increases seem to be for many of the better souvenir sheets and for issues of the Cultural Revolution. The question is: does this represent a pivotal event for the P.R.C. market, and perhaps for the global stamp market as a whole, comparable in its implications for the stamp market to the effect of the failure of Lehman Brothers on the stock market (except, of course, that the new buy prices represent a positive development rather than a negative one)?

It's quite possible that the buy list was simply an attempt to manipulate prices upward, so as to increase the value of a dealer's inventory. But does this even matter? The Chinese stamp market has been hot for a while now, and it would be surprising if price manipulation was not utilized as a catalyst every now and then.

It's also possible that the new buy list is evidence of a bubble.

"The Entire Nation is Red" Design Error (Scott #999A)

To attempt to get a better idea of what is going on in the market for better P.R.C., I've done a little research, comparing buy prices of a few key items over the last 6 years. These quotations are approximate representations of wholesale value, and not by any means comprehensive, in that they do not take into account all P.R.C. buy lists for any given period.

(Prices are for VF NH)


1958 Kuan Han-ching s/s (Scott #357a):


2004: $ 65.00
2006: $ 75.00
2007: $ 85.00
2008: $ 130.00
March, 2010: $ 215.00 ; April, 2010: $ 340.00


1961 Table Tennis s/s (Scott #566a):

2004: $ 180.00
2206: $ 225.00
2007: $ 225.00
2008: $ 275.00
March, 2010: $ 800.00; April,2010: $ 1,180.00


1962 Mei Lan-fang s/s (Scott #628):

2004: $ 1,800.00
2006: $ 2,500.00
2007: $ 3,000.00
March, 2010: $ 10,000.00; April, 2010: $ 11,000.00

1964 Peonies s/s (Scott #782):

2004: $ 400.00
2006: $ 500.00
2007: $ 500.00
March, 2010: $ 2,000.00; April, 2010: $ 3,650.00

1967 Thoughts of Chairman Mao- unfolded strip of 5 (Scott #948a):

2004: $ 325.00
2006: $ 750.00
2007: $ 750.00
March, 2010: $ 2,500.00; April, 2010: $ 3,300.00


1967-68 Poems by Chairman Mao (Scott #967-80):

2004: $ 475.00
2006: $ 800.00
2007: $ 800.00
2008: $ 1,300.00
March, 2010: $ 2,200.00; April, 2010: $ 3,000.00


1968: "The Entire Nation is Red" (Scott #999A):

2004: $ 8,000.00
2006: $ 10,000.00
2007: $ 10,000.00
March, 2010: $ $ 60,000.00; April, 2010: $ 75,000.00


1978 Science Conference s/s (Scott #1383a):

2004: $ 140.00
2006: $ 150.00
2007: $ 160.00
March, 2010: $ 400.00; April, 2010: $ 490.00

1979 Study Science s/s (Scott #1518):

2004: $ 300.00
2006: $ 510.00
March, 2010: $ 1,600.00; April, 2010: $ 1,950.00

1980 Year of the Monkey (Scott #1586):

2004: $ 100.00
2006: $ 215.00
2007: $ 200.00
March, 2010: $ 800.00; April, 2010: $ 975.00

The gains are astounding, to the extent that they defy analysis. In certain respects, the situation certainly looks like a bubble. As the expression goes: "If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck." The only problem is that in this case, we're dealing with Peking Duck, a bionic "superduck" powered by tens of millions of Chinese collectors.

On the one hand, I can not advise buying many of the dramatically revalued items at their new stratospheric levels. On the other, I've been bullish about the Chinese stamp market for decades, and will not bet against it. In the long run, even the items which are currently being hysterically bid upward may turn out to be good investments. My recommendation is to wait until at least some of the dust has cleared, and the shock has at least partly worn off, and then target better items which have not been as hyped, and which haven't experienced such rapid increases in value. They represent safer bets, and their day will come.

Thursday, March 4, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: Republic of China 1954 Silo Bridge Souvenir Folder (Scott #1095a)



In 1954, the Republic of China, otherwise known as Taiwan, celebrated the first anniversary of the completion of its Silo Highway Bridge with the issuance of a souvenir booklet containing a souvenir sheet (Scott #1095a). Only 10,000 booklets were issued, and Scott '10 values it at $ 1,375.00.


Better stamps and souvenir sheets of the R.O.C. have done well over the last few decades, but the market has been cooler than that for stamps of the People's Republic. I believe that as capitalism and incremental democratization take hold in the P.R.C., relations between the "two Chinas" will gradually improve, as will demand for stamps of the R.O.C.. The process of thawing may have already begun: as of 2008, more than $ 150 billion have been invested in the P.R.C. by Taiwanese companies, and about 10% of the Taiwanese labor force works in the P.R.C., often to run their own businesses.


In the meantime, most of the demand for stamps of Taiwan will originate from collectors in Taiwan itself and among overseas Chinese (of which there are approximately 35 million). Taiwan, a nation of 23 million people, is one of the four "Asian Tigers," and has experienced explosive economic growth and industrialization over the last 5 decades. Annual GDP growth has averaged about 4% over the last 5 years, but this reflects the zero growth of 2009, a result of the global financial mess.


Monday, February 15, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: China - Offices in Tibet (Scott 1-11)





From 1909 to late 1911 China occupied Tibet and the Dalai Lama and his Government fled to India. For approximately two years, five Chinese Post Offices operated in Central Tibet and a Chinese Post Office at Chambo (Eastern Tibet) was open in 1913 and 1914.


Initially, the post office used regular stamps of Imperial China, but in 1911 a set of eleven stamps (surcharged in three languages) was introduced for Tibet (Scott #1-11). The set is very scarce and almost never sold complete. As the purchase of any overprinted stamp entails the risk of buying a fake, I recommend purchase of only those stamps in the set (including the two rare varieties) which are costly enough to justify obtaining expertization. I've listed these, along with printing quantities (when known) and Scott '10 Catalog Values for unused, below:

-1911 3p on 1c Ocher, inverted surcharge (Scott #1a; Very Rare; Scott '10 CV= $ 3,500.-)
-1911 3a on 16c Olive Green, large "S" in "Annas" (Scott #6a; Rare; Scott '10 CV= $1,250.-)
-1911 12a on 50c Yellow Green (Scott #9; 12,000; Scott '10 CV= $ 175.- )
-1911 1r on $1 Red and Pale Rose (Scott #10; 4,800; Scott '10 CV = $ 475.- )
-1911 2r on $2 Red and Yellow (Scott #11; 3,704; Scott '10 CV= $ 900.- )

The dispute between China and Tibet over the matter of Tibet's sovereignty has been ongoing for centuries, and it was following the issuance of these stamps that Tibet regained some of its autonomy and began issuing its own stamps in 1912.

I am confident that the Offices in Tibet stamps will do very well over time, mostly due to continued growth in demand for stamps of China. Interest in Tibet and its stamps may also help to push them higher.

Those readers who are on Facebook are welcome to join the "StampSelectors" group. To find it, simply enter "StampSelectors" in Facebook's search box, and then click on the search symbol ( a magnifying glass) to the right of the box. The group will focus upon philatelic investing, the stamp market, and practical matters regarding buying and selling stamps. It will also offer the opportunity to comment upon this blog, get under the author's skin, and suggest future stamp investment tips.



Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: Italy-Offices in China



Like many of the other colonial powers of the time, Italy maintained spheres of influence in China (in Peking and Tientsin), and issued stamps for its offices in China from 1917 through 1921. All of Italy's Offices in China stamps cataloguing $20 and higher are scarce to extremely rare, and are possibly the most undervalued of all of the Offices in China stamps issued by the various countries. Quantities issued are not known, but I would estimate that those stamps presently cataloging $20 or more were probably issued in quantities of under 100 for the rarest to the low thousands for the most common.

These stamps have been largely overlooked for several reasons. Firstly, fake overprints exist for many of the higher values, making expertization necessary, and therefore rendering purchase of the lesser stamps as investments impractical, due to the cost of expertization. Secondly, because of their scarcity, these stamps are rarely offered, and they are often poorly centered or in inferior condition when they are. Thirdly, like other Offices in China stamps, they have been spurned by the Chinese market, because many Chinese view them as shameful relics of imperialistic subjugation.


Nevertheless, I feel that time is on the investor's side when it comes to better Offices in China stamps, because of rising demand among collectors in their home countries, and because I believe that eventually these stamps will be viewed within China as important artifacts of a tragic period of foreign encroachment, which the Chinese people survived and overcame.


Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: Albania 1964 P.R.C. 15th Anniversary (Scott #765-66)

In 1964, Albania issued a set of stamps commemorating the 15th Anniversary of the establishment of the People's Republic of China (Scott #765-66). Only 12,000 sets were issued, and Scott '10 prices the unused set at $ 22.00.


Better stamps of the P.R.C. have dramatically risen over the last decade, and will continue to do so as China progresses economically. It is inevitable that other countries' scarce issues with topics related to the People's Republic, especially those honoring Chairman Mao, will zoom upward when they attract the attention of China's tens of millions of collectors.

The market for Albanian stamps per se is a minor factor in this case, but worthy of consideration, nevertheless. A nation of 3.2 million people, Albania is poor by Western European standards, but has experienced healthy GDP growth, averaging 6% over the last 5 years. Foreign investment has increased but has been dampened somewhat by the country's inadequate infrastructure. Modernization will be Albania's main challenge over the next decade.

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Stamp Investment Tip: People's Republic of China 1968 Revolutionary Literature/Art Issue (Scott #982-90)


In 1968, at the height of the Cultural Revolution, the People's Republic of China issued a set of stamps celebrating Chairman Mao's direction for Revolutionary Literature and Art (Scott #982-90). Quantities issued information is unavailable for this set, but it is probable that 100,000 or fewer were issued. Scott '10 prices the unused set at $ 515.00.


All of the propaganda poster-like stamps of China's Cultural Revolution period are great investments. The Communists strongly discouraged stamp collecting in China at the time, so those stamps which were not used as postage were sold mostly to European and American collectors, and are now being aggressively bought back by millions of Chinese collectors. As China's middle class grows and more of them can afford to purchase the better stamps of P.R.C.,
they'll shoot up in value far more than they already have.



Sunday, October 11, 2009

Stamp Investment Tip: Japanese Offices in China



Like many of the European countries with spheres of influence in China, Japan issued stamps for use by its citizens in China between 1900 and 1921. Scott lists these issues following back-of-book issues of Japan.


Many of these stamps are quite scarce, and they are increasingly of interest to collectors in two hot philatelic markets- China and Japan. As counterfeit overprints exist , I recommend expertization as a condition for purchase. I've listed some of the better stamps by Scott number, quantity issued, and Scott '10 Value for unused below:

  • 20 1908 5y Green (10,000; $ 375.00)

  • 21 1908 10y Dark Violet (5,000; $ 650.00)

  • 22-32 1913 Issue (6,000; $ 1,587.00)

  • 32 1913 1y Yellow Green and Maroon (6,000; $ 825.00)

  • 48 1914 5y Green (46,800; $ 1,900.00)

  • 49 1921 10y Violet (22,200; $ 2,700.00)




Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Stamp Investment Tip: U.S. Offices in China Issues (Scott #K1-18)

From 1919 to 1922, the U.S. issued stamps for prepayment of mail despatched from the U.S. Postal Agency in Shanghai, China. I view many of these stamps as extremely undervalued, and list their printing quantities and Scott '09 Catalog Values for unused below:


1919 Issue:

K1 2c on 1c Green (355,000; $ $25.00 unused; $70.00 NH)

K2 4c on 2c Rose (355,000; $25.00 unused; $ 70.00 NH)

K3 6c on 3c Violet (113,000;$ 60.00 unused; $ 150.00 NH)

K4 8c on 4c Brown (113,000; $ 60.00 unused; $ 150.00 NH)

K5 10c on 5c Blue (113,000; $ 85.00 unused; $ 220.00 NH )

K6 12c on 6c Red Orange (113,000; $ 85.00 unused; $ 220.00 NH )

K7 14c on 7c Black (113,000;$ 87.50 unused; $ 225.00 NH)

K8 16c on 8c Olive Bister (13,000; $ 70.00 unused; $ 180.00 NH)

K8a 16c on 8c Olive Green (100,000;$ 60.00 unused; $ 160.00 NH)

K9 18c on 9c Salmon Red (113,000; $ 65.00 unused; $ 170.00 NH)

K10 20c on 10c Orange Yellow (113,000; $ 60.00 unused; $ 160.00 NH )

K11 24c on 12c Brown Carmine (50,000; $ 80.00 unused; $ 200.00 NH)

K11a 24c on 12c Claret Brown (8,000; $ 110.00 unused; $ 275.00 NH )

K12 30c on 15c Gray (58,000; $ 87.50 unused; $ 210.00 NH)

K13 40c on 20c Deep Ultramarine (58,000; $ 130.00 unused; $ 300.00 NH)

K14 60c on 30c Orange Red ( 58,000; $ 120.00 unused; $ 280.00 NH)

K15 $1 on 50c Light Violet (14,000; $ 575.00 unused; $ 1,300.00 NH)

K16 $2 on $1 Violet Brown (13,800; $ 450.00 unused; $ 1,000.00 NH)

K16a $2 on $1 Violet Brown, double surcharge (200;$ 8,500.00 unused; $ 14,000.00 NH)

1922 Issue:

K17 2c on 1c Green (10,000;$ 110.00 unused; $ 250.00 NH)

K18 4c on 2c Carmine (10,000; $ 100.00 unused; $ 230.00 NH)

K18a 4c on 2c Carmine, "SHANGHAI" Omitted (Unknown, probably 100 or fewer; $ 7,500.00 unused)

K18b 4c on 2c Carmine, "CHINA" only (Unknown, probably 100 or fewer; $ 15,000.00 unused)


The three overprint errors (K16a,K18a, and K18b) are the key stamps of this set, and they, along with the other better stamps should be expertized prior to purchase. The Offices in China Issues tend to have mediocre centering. I recommend obtaining graded certificates for those which are VF-XF or better, and which catalog over $100.


Many of the stamps issued by various nations for their offices and possessions in China have not experienced the same meteoric rise as the currently hot issues of the P.R.C.. Perhaps this is partly attributable to Chinese nationalism, as the foreign countries that had colonies or spheres of influence in China were there as imperial powers, attempting to suck the lifeblood out of the Chinese people via the opium trade, resource extraction, and other means. Nevertheless, many of the stamps issued by the U.S., Great Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Portugal (for Macao) and Russia for their Chinese offices/possessions are quite scarce and undervalued, and eagerly sought by the colonies collectors of those countries. Eventually, the Chinese market will take greater notice of them.

Sunday, September 27, 2009

Stamp Investment Tip: People's Republic of China 1964 Peony Souvenir Sheet (Scott #782)


In August of 1964, about a year and a half before the beginning of the Cultural Revolution, the People's Republic of China symbolically fulfilled its broken promise to let a few flowers bloom, by issuing a set (Scott 767-81) and souvenir sheet picturing paintings of Peonies (Scott #782). Only 30,000 of these beautiful Flower topical souvenir sheets were issued, and Scott '10 values the unused souvenir sheet at $ 1,200.00 .

Most were sold to American and European collectors, because philately was discouraged in the P.R.C. at the time. Like the Ping Pong souvenir sheet (Scott #566a) tipped earlier in this blog, this sheet is white-hot right now, and tipping it is actually a boringly safe recommendation. Unless China has another revolution or the sky falls on it somehow, the Peony Souvenir Sheet will continue to soar, the only pertinent question being how far and how quickly.



Thursday, September 10, 2009

Stamp Investment Tip: People's Republic of China 1961 Ping Pong Souvenir Sheet (Scott #566a)

The Chinese stamp market is white hot right now, and will continue to be so as long as the People's Republic maintains its rapid economic growth and does not experience a major political disruption. There may be over 15 million stamp collectors in China, and in the year 2000, the Chinese government made it an official policy to foster stamp collecting among its youth, by encouraging elementary and high school teachers to form stamp clubs, as a means of increasing interest in China's history. The country currently has almost 50,000 stamp clubs and philatelic organizations, and universities in Fujian and Jiangxi offer elective courses in Philately. All of this represents a complete reversal of Chairman Mao's prohibition against stamp collecting, which he viewed as a form of "reactionary cosmopolitanism." While he was alive, most stamps of the P.R.C. which were not used for postage were bought by European and American collectors. Now, the Chinese are buying them back.


Among the hottest of issues from P.R. China are many of the early souvenir sheets, produced in absurdly low quantities, and stamps of the Cultural Revolution period. The 1961 26th World Table Tennis Championship Souvenir Sheet (Scott #566a) had a printing of only 30,000. It's a great Sports topical, and as with many similarly scarce Chinese souvenir sheets, should continue to skyrocket in value as long as the P.R.C. continues to prosper and doesn't implode. Scott '10 values the unused souvenir sheet at $ 700.-, and the avid competition to acquire this and other better P.R.C. items is reflected in current buy lists.









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