Showing posts with label Philatelic Investment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Philatelic Investment. Show all posts

Sunday, April 11, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: Egypt 1932-39 Military Stamps



Between 1932 and 1935, the British provided stamps at a reduced rate for use by their military forces in Egypt, per the terms of a concessionary arrangement made with the Egyptian government. The stamps were to be affixed to the back of envelopes bearing an "Egypt Postage Prepaid" handstamp on the front, and were used by military personnel and their families for letters sent to Great Britain and Ireland.


These stamps are of particular interest because they have dual market appeal among collectors of both British Commonwealth and Egypt, with the growing stamp market in Egypt being a potentially powerful catalyst that could push the values of these stamps up significantly. I've listed the British Forces in Egypt stamps with the lowest printing quantities, along with their Scott '10 Catalog Values, below:
- 1932 3m Black on sage green (Scott #M2; 41,800; $ 55.00 )
- 1933 3m Brown Lake (Scott #M4; 54,000; $ 8.75 )
- 1934 3m Deep Blue (Scott #M6; 63,000; $ 8.25)
- 1935 1p Jubilee Overprint (Scott #M9; 27,000; $ 325.00)
- 1935 3m on 1p Bright Carmine (Scott #M11; 10,000; $ 25.00)



In addition, there is a non-Scott-listed variety of the 1935 3m Christmas stamp (Scott #M10). The normal vermilion stamp (Scott '10 CV=$ 2.25) is relatively common, with 101,100 issued. The neglected yellow orange variety (Michel #10b), which is currently valued at around triple the normal stamp, had a printing of only 12,075.

Also note that the 1935 1p Jubilee Overprint (Scott #M9) has added appeal as part of the George V Silver Jubilee Omnibus set of stamps issued by the various Commonwealth countries.


With an estimated 76 million people, Egypt possesses one of the most developed economies in the Mid-East, with a GDP growth rate of 5%-7%. The government is undertaking major economic reforms to further spur development, including massive investments in infrastructure and liberalizing economic and tax policies to encourage foreign investment. Egypt's main challenge in the years to come will be one of social and political democratization - how to assure that enough of the new wealth trickles down to the majority of the population to lessen the problems of poverty and political instability. Nevertheless, barring major political instability, it is likely that Egypt will be one of the fastest growing economies over the next several decades.







Thursday, February 11, 2010

General Commentary: Does Absence Make the Heart Grow Fonder? Former Colonies' Ties to Former Colonial Powers and Philatelic Investment

When pondering whether to invest in stamps of a former colonial power, a complicated and unquantifiable yet nevertheless important factor to consider is the sentiment of the former power's so-called "subject peoples." This is especially true in the case of former colonies which are currently prospering or rapidly developing economies, or which are beginning to develop significant stamp collecting populations.

In all cases, the former colonial powers are now First World nations, with highly developed industrialized economies and relatively affluent populations (compared to most of the rest of the world). The initial demand for stamps of these countries' former colonies originates in the home countries themselves, because usually in the first years following independence, the former colonies are too poor to sustain a significant domestic stamp collecting population. As a former colony's economy develops, so too may its stamp collecting population, which will probably focus mainly upon the country's own stamps and ignore the stamps of the former colonial power, especially since resentments toward it may linger. However, if ties to the former colonial power improve, or if its administration of its former colony lasted a long time and it exerted a strong cultural influence on the people, then an interest in the stamps of the former colonial power may develop.

Over time, resentment against the former colonial power usually diminishes. Should the feeling remain strong as a former colony's economy and stamp collecting population develops, then the initial focus will be on the independent country's own stamps, as both the stamps of the colonial period and of the former colonizer will be spurned. Over time, however, interest in stamps of the colonial period, and possibly also in stamps of the former colonizer, may also increase. Of course, hatred of or resentment towards a particular country or regime do not always deter people from collecting its stamps. The vast majority of those who collect German, Japanese, or Italian occupation stamps of World War II do not support Nazism, Japanese Militarism, or Fascism.


The cultural/political factor is very difficult to gauge, yet should be considered because it is a potentially significant source of demand. For instance, as India develops economically and the number of Indian stamp collectors increases, how many of them will collect stamps of Great Britain? Similarly, will collectors in former French, Spanish, Portuguese, Dutch, or Belgian colonies collect stamps of their former "home countries?" Perhaps it is possible to profit from betting on forgiveness, or at least reticence.


Stamp Investment Tip: Egypt 1922 2pi Orange Postage Due (Scott #J26-26a)


Sometimes, among the best stamps in which to invest are the obscure, plain-looking back-of-book issues which collectors initially ignore. Such is the case with the unassuming little postage due which I am touting to all of you stampselectors today.


In 1922, Egypt overprinted some of its 1889 2pi Orange Postage Due stamps to celebrate the Proclamation of the Monarchy of King Fuad (Scott #J26, J26a). 26,000 of the normal, "overprint left side up" stamps, and 8,000 of the "overprint right side up" variety were issued. Scott '10 values the normal unused stamp at $ 5.00 and the variety at $ 25.00. In all probability, at least 70%-90% of these stamps were used and discarded, leaving perhaps 2,600 to 7,800 of the normal stamp and 800-2,400 of the variety remaining.


Generally, when scarce yet boring back-of-book stamps are overlooked, they remain undervalued for a time, until collectors realize that they have to fill spaces in their albums, but can't find the stamps. As prices rise, they don't seem quite as boring anymore. I think this may prove doubly true for such stamps when they come from countries with rapidly developing economies and growing populations of stamp collectors.

With an estimated 76 million people, Egypt possesses one of the most developed economies in the Mid-East, with a GDP growth rate of 5% -7%. The government is undertaking major economic reforms to further spur development, including massive investments in infrastructure and liberalizing economic and tax policies to encourage foreign investment. Egypt's main challenge in the years to come will be one of social and political democratization - how to assure that enough of the new wealth trickles down to the majority of the population to lessen the problems of poverty and political instability.


Note: you may run into a cover bearing either the normal stamp or the variety at a very reasonable price while flipping through a dealer's bargain box. Be sure to maintain a poker face as you buy it from him.






Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: Turkey 1939 Ankara-Erzerum Railroad Issue (Scott #829-32)


In 1939, Turkey issued a set of stamps commemorating the completion of the Sivas to Erzerum link of the Ankara-Erzerum Railroad (Scott #829-32). 35,000 of this Transportation/ Railroad topical set were issued, and Scott '10 values it unused at $ 21.00.

With a population of about 72 1/2 million, Turkey is perhaps the most culturally European of the Islamic nations, and their probable model for modernization, economic development, and democratization. The country experienced rapid economic growth between 2002 and 2007, with GDP averaging 7.4%, but this slowed in 2008 to 5% and stalled in 2009 to 1%, due to the global financial crisis, from which the country is recovering. While traditional agriculture is still a pillar of the Turkish economy, it is becoming more dependent on industry in major cities. Key sectors include tourism, banking, construction, home appliances, electronics, textiles, oil refining, petrochemical products, food, mining, iron and steel, the machine industry, automotive, and shipbuilding. It is likely that in the future, Turkey will benefit from serving as an economic and cultural nexus connecting Europe, the Near East, and the Turkic (formerly Soviet) nations of Central Asia.


Stamp collecting is growing in Turkey, and there are also many collectors of Turkish stamps in Europe and the U.S.. I recommend consideration of Turkish stamps and souvenir sheets with printings of 100,000 or fewer, especially if they have topical appeal.

Sunday, January 31, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: Bahrain 1948-49 Surcharge (Scott #52-61A)


In 1948 and '49, the Kingdom of Bahrain, then a British-protected territory, surcharged a portion of Great Britain's George VI definitives of the time, issuing a set of eleven stamps (Scott #52-61A). Only 16,460 sets were issued, making it perhaps the scarcest set ever issued by Bahrain. Scott '10 values the unused set at $ 83.00 ($110.- for NH).

I favor all of the better stamps of the affluent Gulf States, and this set has the added attraction of appealing to British Commonwealth collectors.


Bahrain, a country of just under 800,000, has the fastest growing economy in the Arab world. With oil reserves estimated at 150-200 million barrels, Bahrain is not as oil-rich as some of the other Gulf States, but has met the challenge by successfully diversifying into banking and financial services, and is now considered a major financial center. Annual GDP growth has averaged 6.5% over the past 5 years. Bahrain is also developing its natural gas industry, as it has gas reserves equivalent to about another 580 million barrels of oil.

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: Italy-Offices in China



Like many of the other colonial powers of the time, Italy maintained spheres of influence in China (in Peking and Tientsin), and issued stamps for its offices in China from 1917 through 1921. All of Italy's Offices in China stamps cataloguing $20 and higher are scarce to extremely rare, and are possibly the most undervalued of all of the Offices in China stamps issued by the various countries. Quantities issued are not known, but I would estimate that those stamps presently cataloging $20 or more were probably issued in quantities of under 100 for the rarest to the low thousands for the most common.

These stamps have been largely overlooked for several reasons. Firstly, fake overprints exist for many of the higher values, making expertization necessary, and therefore rendering purchase of the lesser stamps as investments impractical, due to the cost of expertization. Secondly, because of their scarcity, these stamps are rarely offered, and they are often poorly centered or in inferior condition when they are. Thirdly, like other Offices in China stamps, they have been spurned by the Chinese market, because many Chinese view them as shameful relics of imperialistic subjugation.


Nevertheless, I feel that time is on the investor's side when it comes to better Offices in China stamps, because of rising demand among collectors in their home countries, and because I believe that eventually these stamps will be viewed within China as important artifacts of a tragic period of foreign encroachment, which the Chinese people survived and overcame.


Thursday, January 14, 2010

Stamp Investment Tips: Russia 1935 Moscow-San Francisco Flight Surcharge (Scott #C68)

In 1935, Russia issued a stamp for it first flight from Moscow to San Francisco (Scott #C68) by applying a 1r sucharge to its earlier 10k S. A. Levanesky stamp. Only 10,000 were issued, and Scott '10 prices the unused stamp at $ 1,250.00 ($ 3,250.00 for NH). The stamp has appeal to Aviation topicalists as well as collectors of Russia.

The market for better Russian stamps from the Czarist through Stalin periods is very hot right now. With 142 million people, Russia is the 8th or 9th largest economy in the world, with vast reserves of natural resources and a highly educated population. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has experienced several major economic crises in its transition to capitalism, although annual GDP growth has been strong over the last 5 years, at around 7%. The country is still plagued by corruption and organized crime, making it somewhat reminiscent of America during its "Wild West" and Robber-Baron periods. Nevertheless, the middle class has grown from just 8 million people in 2000 to 55 million in 2006.

I favor all better items of Russia, as I believe it likely that both its economy and stamp collecting population will grow substantially over the next decades.

Note that counterfeit overprints exist for this issue, so expertization is strongly advised.

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Stamp Investment Tip: Venezuela 1944 Baseball Issue (Scott #C189-97)

In 1944, Venezuela issued an airmail set commemorating the 7th World Amateur Baseball Championship Games, held in Caracas (Scott #C189-97). Only 10,000 sets were issued, and Scott' 10 prices it at $ 42.50 for unused.

This overlooked issue is extremely attractive, as it combines scarcity, low price, a growing worldwide topical interest in Baseball, and an issuance country which is prospering, and likely to continue to prosper for the foreseeable future.

With a population of about 26 million, Venezuela is resource-rich, and consistently ranks among the top ten oil producers in the world. Annual GDP growth has averaged almost 10% over the last 5 years, although it has been decelerating recently due to lower oil prices. Under Chavez-style quasi-socialism, the percentage of Venezuelans living below the poverty line has decreased from 48% in 2002 to 30% in 2006. The country has begun diversifying its economy away from its current near-total dependence on petroleum exports, and has spawned a rapidly growing manufacturing sector.

Varieties exist for stamps of this set, including imperforates and overprint varieties. Perhaps the rarest is the double overprint of "AEREO" on the 45 centavo Rose Violet (Scott #C193), which is listed in Michel, but not in Scott. These varieties are considerably rarer than the normal stamps, but since they are not Scott-listed, it is possible that you will find them priced at only a modest premium.


Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Practical Advice: Is It Real? Avoiding the Hazards of Fakes and Forgeries


Fakes and forgeries pose a threat to the bottom line of any stampselector, and learning how to detect them, or at least when to be suspicious, is necessary if one wishes to avoid contaminating a portfolio with these "album weeds."

Fakes are generally common stamps altered so as to appear to be scarcer, more valuable ones, or stamps which have altered so as to give an "improved," false appearance as to their condition. The types of fakes most prevalent in the current philatelic market are fake overprints, reperforated stamps, stamps with perforations trimmed off so as to appear imperforate or as scarce coils, stamps with fake grills, and stamps which have been exposed to certain chemicals, so as to make them appear to be rare or missing color varieties. Common condition alterations include: bleaching cancellations off of used stamps to make them appear unused, filling thins or obscuring them with hinge remnants, the application of false postmarks (in cases where used stamps are more valuable than unused ones, or rare postmarks exist), and regumming.

Forgeries are labels created "from scratch" by the forger in order to resemble particular stamps. They come in three types: postal forgeries, created to defraud the postal service, governmental forgeries, created to deprive an enemy nation of funds from the sale of its stamps, reprints, and philatelic forgeries.

Postal and governmental forgeries need not concern us here, because they are generally not forgeries of scarce stamps. In fact, many postal and governmental forgeries are more valuable to collectors than the actual stamps that they resemble.

Reprints are produced, either governmentally or privately, with the printing plates that were used to produce the original stamps. Often, stamp catalogs note the differences between the original stamps and their reprints, when reprints exist. Many reprints were produced quite legitimately as novelty labels to be sold by packet makers, and major differences usually exist between originals and their reprints.

Philatelic forgeries range from the crudest, most obvious reproductions to some that are extremely convincing. In the 19th century, many considered it quite acceptable to fill a space in an album with a facsimile when the genuine stamp was unavailable. Some of the early forgers, such as Fournier and Sperati, were true masters of their craft, and their forgeries are valued by collectors.


Requiring expertization as a condition for purchase is probably the best way to avoid getting burned when purchasing a stamp that is suspect. Ebay bidders should consider taking a look at the Stamp Collectors Against Dodgy Sellers (S.C.A.D.S.) website.




Sunday, October 11, 2009

Stamp Investment Tip: Japanese Offices in China



Like many of the European countries with spheres of influence in China, Japan issued stamps for use by its citizens in China between 1900 and 1921. Scott lists these issues following back-of-book issues of Japan.


Many of these stamps are quite scarce, and they are increasingly of interest to collectors in two hot philatelic markets- China and Japan. As counterfeit overprints exist , I recommend expertization as a condition for purchase. I've listed some of the better stamps by Scott number, quantity issued, and Scott '10 Value for unused below:

  • 20 1908 5y Green (10,000; $ 375.00)

  • 21 1908 10y Dark Violet (5,000; $ 650.00)

  • 22-32 1913 Issue (6,000; $ 1,587.00)

  • 32 1913 1y Yellow Green and Maroon (6,000; $ 825.00)

  • 48 1914 5y Green (46,800; $ 1,900.00)

  • 49 1921 10y Violet (22,200; $ 2,700.00)




Saturday, October 10, 2009

Stamp Investment Tip: Madagascar 1942 France Libre Overprint Airs (Scott #C27-36)



Madagascar was a French colony until 1958, when it became the Malagasy Republic. During World War II, Madagascar was administered by the collaborationist Vichy Government until 1942, when it was turned over to the Free French by the British following the Battle of Madagascar. To celebrate the liberation, the Free French overprinted the Map Airmails then in use "FRANCE LIBRE" (Scott # C27-36; Scott '10 Catalog Value as unused = $ 125.50). Only 7,000 sets were overprinted, because the 1.75fr Orange and Red (Scott #C28), which became the key stamp of the set, was in short supply.


Though still a poor nation of about 20 million, the Malagasy Republic has great potential if it institutes political and economic reforms and develops its agricultural and mining sectors. Annual GDP growth has been humming along at 5%-7% over the last 5 years. Several major projects are underway in the mining and oil and gas sectors that, if successful, will give a significant boost to the Malagasy economy.


This set should do well based solely on interest from French Colonies collectors. It will do extremely well if a collector market develops in the Malagasy Republic.

Stamp Investment Tip: Kuwait 1948-49 Surcharge Issue (Scott #72-81A)



Kuwait was a British Protectorate until it attained independence in 1961. In 1948-49, the British issued a surcharged set of eleven stamps for Kuwait (Scott #72-81A). 19,351 sets were issued, and Scott '10 prices the unused set at $ 92.50. Issues of Kuwait, especially those of the British period, are sought after both in Kuwait and among British Commonwealth collectors.


A country of just under 3 million people, Kuwait is the 5th richest country in the world, with proven oil reserves of 104 billion barrels, and annual GDP growth of just under 6%. It is also developing its other major industries, which include shipping, construction, cement, water desalination, construction materials and financial services.
There are a number of scarce and undervalued issues from the Gulf States which I view as bargains. Assuming that these countries can maintain their economic growth, diversify away from their current near-total dependence on oil revenues, and avoid internal political instability or military conflicts with their neighbors, their better stamps should all do well.



Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Stamp Investment Tip: South Korea 1948 Olympic Issue (Scott #85-86)



In 1948, South Korea issued a pair of stamps commemorating its participation in the 1948 Olympics (Scott #85-86). 100,000 sets were issued, and Scott '10 prices the set at $ 80.00 unused ($ for 175.00NH).


The set has appeal both as a scarce issue from a rapidly developing "Asian Tiger" nation, and as a Sports/Olympics topical.



Saturday, September 12, 2009

Practical Advice: Comparing Stamp and Equities Investing

Investing in stamps, or in any collectible for that matter, is very different from investing in stocks or mutual funds, and knowing how stamp investing differs from investing in equities is crucial to ensuring that the enterprise is a success.

First of all, stamps should not been seen as a replacement for other types of investments, but rather as a hedge or alternative investment - an area in which to allocate a portion of one's funds so as to diversify. As any seasoned investor knows, diversification is key to minimizing risk. Stamps held up very well during the the recent near-collapse of equities and real estate resulting from the sub-prime debacle, effectively demonstrating the value of diversifying ones holdings into a variety of areas of investing.


For the most part, philatelic investing is basically a form of international investing - a way to profit from economic growth and demographic trends affecting the stamp collecting populations of various countries. Accordingly, the most apt comparison one might make would be between stamps and stocks of foreign companies, or mutual funds which specialize in various types of international investing, specific regions, or specific countries.


Some of the important differences that exist between the two realms are as follows:


  • Shares of a particular stock are more readily available for purchase than are examples of a particular stamp. A philatelic investor cannot call his broker and place an order for 1,000 VF NH singles of a stamp that he feels is a "sleeper."

  • Stocks are far more liquid than stamps, and trade at a set price, or set range of bid and ask prices, at any given time. Selling stamps requires greater effort, and a stamp's value may differ widely from market to market, or even from buyer to buyer. Often, there is only a sense of an approximate range of values for a given stamp.

  • A corporation may choose to issue more shares of its stock, thereby diluting supply. Once issued, the supply of a stamp never increases, and is always either static or dimininishing. The "known" supply of a particular stamp may increase, however, if there is a new find.

  • Individual corporations are subject to circumstances which may destroy them or severely damage their prospects, regardless of the long-term outlook of the economies of which they are a part. A corporation may decline or die due to the ineptitude or criminality of its directors, short- or medium-term changes in market conditions, governmental intervention, or a host of other hazards. A corporation may go bankrupt, rendering its shares completely and permanently worthless. A stamp may rise or fall in value, but it will never go bankrupt.

  • A stock will increase in value if the underlying corporation experiences or foresees increases in earnings. An investment in a stock reflects a risk/reward analysis specific to the underlying company's prospects, with some attention paid to short- and medium-term conditions.

  • A stamp will increase in value due to increased interest among collectors or investors. This is largely a function of changes in the basis of demand for the stamp - the collector population which is bidding for the available supply. As the size of the collector population within a particular country tends to grow with the country's middle class, an investment in that country's stamps represents a general and long-term investment in the country's future economic development.

  • A stamp is a tangible collectible investment, so care must be taken to preserve it. A share of stock simply represents an investment in a company; assuming that one even possesses the actual certificate, it will be worth the same whether it is in perfect condition or not.

  • The kinds of knowledge and expertise necessary to being a successful collectibles investor vs. a successful stock investor differ widely. While both require comprehensiveness and depth of analysis of prospective investments, the knowledge of the demand-base, collectors vs. consumers, takes on a very different character. The stamp collecting cohort is largely comprised of Renaissance Men (and Women): well-educated, intelligent, and dynamic. Furthermore, there is an undefined continuum between those who are purely hobbyists and those who are interested in the financial aspects of philately- collectors who sell stamps and use the profits to upgrade their collections, vest-pocket dealers, investors, etc.. The successful stamp investor must have a kind of empathy with this group- an identification with them, in fact- because he is, in truth, a part of it.

Thursday, September 10, 2009

General Commentary : Crime and Collectibles Investing, or All You Need to Know about Legally Profiting from Criminality, but were Afraid to Ask



Each year, organized crime nets hundreds of billions of dollars in profits through various illegal enterprises, including narcotics and arms sales, human trafficking, extortion, bribery of government officials, prostitution, illegal gambling, fraud, and other assorted scams and rip-offs. Certainly, such enterprises should be combatted because they tend to be violent, parasitic, and impose a high cost upon the human community as a whole.

Nevertheless, it is possible that criminality and "vice" are inevitable elements of an incipient phase of capitalism, especially in many developing countries. American History provides a precedent: in the United States, much of the original wealth was founded upon land stolen from the Native Americans, slavery, and in the "Wild West," prostitution, liquor, and gambling. The early "robber barons" were not above having their minions commit expedient murders every now and then, yet now, their names are associated with the charitable foundations established by their dynastic families. The harlots of yesteryear have become the respected society matrons of today.

Many of the organizations currenly engaged in criminal activities are family or gang-based and identify with a particular ethnic group or nationality. All share a similar problem: how to launder their ill-gotten gains. The purpose of money-laundering, an industry unto itself, is to avoid exposure, taxation, or other governmental confiscation of revenues obtained through illegal activity. A large proportion of this money is invested in legitimate, or semi-legitimate, businesses, equities, and real estate, but as diversification is key to minimizing risk, a portion is also invested in tangibles- precious metals, art, and other collectibles, including stamps.

The recent increases in the value of many better stamps of Russia, Colombia, and Mexico raise the question of whether part of those increases result from the investment of dirty money into the better stamps of these countries, thereby bidding them up and depleting their supply on the market. I believe that there is such an effect, but that, for obvious reasons, it cannot be measured. It is an interesting factor to consider, however, because it raises the possibility of legally profiting from illegality. A philatelic investor who wanted to profit from such a "criminality trend" might attempt to project which countries are associated with extensive and profitable "up and coming" criminal operations and then buy the better stamps of those countries.

Pages

Followers

About Me

My Photo
Alex
I create paintings as documentations of context, based on systems of rules.
View my complete profile