Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: Albania 1964 P.R.C. 15th Anniversary (Scott #765-66)

In 1964, Albania issued a set of stamps commemorating the 15th Anniversary of the establishment of the People's Republic of China (Scott #765-66). Only 12,000 sets were issued, and Scott '10 prices the unused set at $ 22.00.


Better stamps of the P.R.C. have dramatically risen over the last decade, and will continue to do so as China progresses economically. It is inevitable that other countries' scarce issues with topics related to the People's Republic, especially those honoring Chairman Mao, will zoom upward when they attract the attention of China's tens of millions of collectors.

The market for Albanian stamps per se is a minor factor in this case, but worthy of consideration, nevertheless. A nation of 3.2 million people, Albania is poor by Western European standards, but has experienced healthy GDP growth, averaging 6% over the last 5 years. Foreign investment has increased but has been dampened somewhat by the country's inadequate infrastructure. Modernization will be Albania's main challenge over the next decade.

Monday, January 11, 2010

Phila-Trivia: Hyperinflation and Stamps


It may irritating to discover that the prices of many goods at the supermarket have doubled over the last few years, but it doesn't compare to the desperation experienced during periods of hyperinflation, when currency could be rendered virtually worthless in a matter of days or weeks.

The most famous incident of hyperinflation during the stamp-issuing era was in Germany in the early 1920s. A memorable image of this period is a photograph of a man pushing a wheelbarrow full of paper money through the streets to buy a loaf of bread. Regular German postal stamps issued just prior to 1922 ranged from a couple of pfennig to no more than 20 mark. In 1922, values went up a bit, with one series ranging from 100 to 500 mark, but it was 1923 when things really started to go south (or rather north). The pfennig gave way to the mark, which soon gave way to the tausend mark. The inability to keep up with inflation by printing new, higher denominated stamp series required that older issues be hastily surcharged with denominations in the thousands to millions.

German 1923 10 milliarden (10 billion) Mark stamp


German postal hyperinflation reached a crescendo with two stamps (Scott #299 and #305) both denominated at 50 milliarde (50 billion) mark. These were, of course, the highest denominated stamps in their respective series, used for mailing packages and the like (at least until inflation overtook their value). However, the lowest denominations in those series were still an impressive 500,000 and 10 million, respectively.

Even worse than the Weimar Republic's hyperinflation was what Hungary experienced in 1946, when the highest denominated stamp (#774) was a dove and letter design with a printed value of 500,000 billio-pengő -- that's 500 quadrillion pengő! (A few years earlier, a comparable, high-end stamp would have cost only 80 fillér, which was less than 1 pengő.) The cheapest stamp in that series was 1 trillion pengő -- convenient for sending a postcard to Aunty Yllona! (Note that the Hungarian billio is in the traditional long scale, so it is equal to a modern trillion. They also printed three stamps, #757-759, in milliards, or modern billions, before inflation made even that unit impractical.)

Hyperinflation is especially interesting to philatelists, because due to the rapid devaluations of the period, some stamps were only in use for a very short time, and are now worth far more used than unused. Of course, fraudulent cancellations abound.






Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Stamp Investment Tips: Ryukyus 1958 30y Light Olive Green Variety (Scott #24a)


The Ryukyus Islands were occupied by U.S. forces in 1945, and reverted to Japan in 1972. During the period of occupation, the U.S. issued stamps for use in the Ryukyus, which now are sought by U.S. and Japanese collectors.

In 1953, the Ryukyus issued a 30y Olive Green stamp picturing the Sonchan Utaki Altar at Shuri Castle (Scott #24)a s part of its 1952-53 Scenes set. While the normal stamp is quite common, a light olive green variety (Scott #24a), issued in 1958, is not, as only 1,300 of the variety were issued. Scott '10 prices the unused variety at $ 60.00.

The variety has been neglected, and has a strong dual market, appealing to both American and Japanese collectors.


Sunday, January 3, 2010

Stamp Investment Tips: Newfoundland 1910 1c Guy Issue, "NFW" variety (Scott 87 var.)

A little over 2 months ago, I recommended purchase of Newfoundland's 1910 Guy Issue (Scott #87-97, 98-103). Focusing a little more closely on this issue, I am now tipping the stamp that is perhaps its most undervalued variety, the 1c "NFW" for "NEW" variety (formerly Scott 87d- the upper left stamp in the block pictured). Scott, in its infinite wisdom, elected to deprive this stamp of its catalog number, although it is still noted and priced in Scott's Classic Specialized Catalog. Unitrade, the Canadian specialized catalog, still lists the stamp.



50,000 of the normal 1c stamp (Scott #87) were printed in sheets of 100, of which one stamp per sheet had the "NFW" variety. In other words, only 500 "NFW" varieties were originally issued, back in 1910. Nice LH and even NH examples can sometimes be found for $50 to $150, and the stamp is even occasionally available in blocks of 4 with the normal 1c stamps. I feel that this stamp is grossly undervalued, partly because of Scott's treatment of it, a temporary case of the "tail wagging the dog." Stamps of Newfoundland and the other former British colonies of British North America are very popular among both Canada and British Commonwealth collectors.


With a population of about 31 million, Canada is one of the world's wealthiest countries, and is one of the world's top ten trading nations. GDP growth has averaged 2.2% over the past five years, which takes into account the 0% growth of 2009 due to the global financial crisis. Canada's population is expected to age significantly over the next decades. Canadians over 60 are projected to increase from 16.7% of the population in 2000 to 27.9% in 2025, and 30.5% in 2050. Consequently, in the future, many more Canadians will be spending time working on their stamp collections on cold winter days.



Stamp Investment Tips: Finland 1930 Zeppelin Overprint (Scott # C1)


In 1930, Finland overprinted 50,000 of its 10m Lake Saima
stamps "Zeppelin 1930", thereby creating its first airmail, intended to be used on the Graf Zeppelin return flight from Finland to Germany (Scott #C1). 500 stamps were errantly overprinted "Zeppelin 1830" instead of "1930" (Scott #C1a), of which probably about 200-300 were sold and the rest destroyed. Scott '10 values #C1 unused at $ 140.00 ($225.00 for NH)and C1a at $ 2,500 .


I feel that both stamps are good investments, but that the overprint error is the better of the two. Zeppelin stamps and covers are extremely popular worldwide, and the "1830" overprint error is one of the gems of both Finnish and Zeppelin philately. It costs a little more than a U.S. 1930 Zeppelin set (Scott #C13-15), yet is about 200 times rarer, and worth its weight in Finnish fairy dust.
Finland, a nation of 5.3 million people, has a highly industrialized free-market economy focused largely on manufacturing. GDP growth has averaged about 3.6% annually over the last 5 years, although it declined recently due to the global financial crisis, and is now recovering. Finland's stamp collecting population is comparable to other Scandinavian countries, and will probably grow significantly as the nation ages over the next decades.

Counterfeit overprints exist of both the normal and error stamps, so authentication is recommended, especially for the error.




Sunday, December 20, 2009

Stamp Investment Tip: South Africa 1936 JIPEX Souvenir Sheets (Scott #72-73)


In 1936 South Africa issued a pair of souvenir sheets for the Johannesburg International Philatelic Exhibition (Scott #72-73). Only 5,000 sets were issued, and Scott '10 prices the set at $ 11.75 ($ 25.00 for NH).

I feel that the set is undervalued, given its appeal to collectors of British Commonwealth and South Africa.

South Africa is a country of vast potential but many problems. As a a middle-income country of about 49 million, it has an abundant supply of resources, well-developed financial, legal, communications, energy, and transport sectors, a stock exchange that ranks among the top twenty in the world, and a modern infrastructure supporting an efficient distribution of goods to major urban centres throughout the entire region. South Africa is ranked 25th in the world in terms of GDP. Annual GDP growth has averaged about 4% over the past 5 years.


However, the country has a two-tiered economy- one rivaling other developed countries and the other with only the most basic infrastructure, similar to a Third World nation. Unemployment is extremely high and income inequality is approximately equal to Brazil. Also, there is an 18% HIV infection rate among South African adults, among the highest in the world.

Nevertheless, I believe that the sheets represent a low-risk speculation, and given their current inexpensiveness and low printing quantity, the downside is virtually non-existent.




Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Stamp Investment Tips: Mulling Over Moldova


There's an old saying in real estate investing which I believe applies to the many of the stamps of Moldova: "Buy the worst house in the best neighborhood."

Flipping through the Moldova section of a Michel Osteuropa 2009/2010 Catalog (Band 7), I've noted that the country was established in 1991, and that the sets and souvenir sheets it has produced since then have been issued in low to moderate quantities- mostly 100,000 or fewer, with many under 30,000. Furthermore, many of Moldova's issues are attractive topicals, with international appeal.

On the other hand, Moldova is the poorest country in Europe, and about a quarter of its population of 3 1/2 million live on less than $2 per day. The country has no mineral deposits but enjoys a favorable climate and good farmland, and depends heavily on agriculture (mainly fruits, vegetables, wine, and tobacco). Currently, Moldova imports all of its supplies of oil, coal, and natural gas, mostly from Russia, and consequently is extremely vulnerable to increases in energy prices. Annual GDP growth has been strong recently, averaging about 5.5% over the last five years.


My view is that the Moldovan economy will probably gradually improve, and that even if it doesn't, it doesn't have much further to fall. Development of domestic alternative forms of energy could improve its situation considerably. While I do not believe that a significant stamp collecting base will develop within the country in the near future, its scarcest popular topical sets and souvenir sheets should be considered for speculation. I've listed a few of them, along with quantities issued, and Scott '10 Catalog Values, below:

1995 Mushrooms (Scott #153-57; 22,500; Scott '10 CV = $ 16.65)

1995 Relics (Scott #161-63; 25,500; Scott '10 CV = $ 9.40)

1995 Films (Scott #187-89; 20,000; Scott '10 CV = $ 9.15 )

1996 Mushrooms (Scott #190-94; 20,000; Scott '10 CV = $ 9.00)

1996 Summer Olympics s/s (Scott #199a; 10,000; Scott '10 CV = $ 3.50)

1996 Monasteries (Scott #200-04; 17,000; Scott '10 CV = $ 10.40)

1997 Composers (Scott #232-35; 19,500; Scott '10 CV = $ 7.00)

1997 UNESCO World Heritage Sites (Scott #250-55; 18,500; Scott '10 CV = $ 6.35)



Pages

Followers

About Me

My Photo
Alex
I create paintings as documentations of context, based on systems of rules.
View my complete profile